4 lessons from US elections for my child

4 lessons from US elections I will be teaching my child: people’s believes, leaders’ priorities, style and might.

Introduction

More than a week after the US elections, we still do not have a clear closure about who will be the next US president. Multiple media organizations had called the elections for Biden. Trump came close to admitting there might be a next administration in a recent news conference. However, he is still fighting in the courts and has yet to concede.

4. Might is right – if you’re not in the camp of the might, you need to adapt.

I previously wrote about learning about US geography from the board game Ticket to Ride. The US elections has been a very good refresher.

Other than geography, I find the episode carries very important lessons for my child. These pertain to the people and leaders she will need to deal with every day. They also include what qualities and skills she would need to function well when she grows up.

Lesson 1: People believe very different things

Prior to election day, traditional pollsters projected a blue-wave sweeping the United States. Five-thirty-eight gave Trump a 10% chance of winning, though Nate Silver was quick to point out Trump can still win.

As it turns out, the blue wave did not materialize. Though Trump might be close to conceding the election, the margin of his loss was much narrower than many projected. In fact, he got more than 72 million votes. Trump could legitimately claim to have received more popular votes than Obama at his best.

The fact that close to half of US voters voted for Trump after the events of the past four years tells us a fair bit about Americans. For example, you would think that Christians would have issues voting for a president who demonstrates few of the Christian values and who mocks them in private. However, as the FT explains, the evangelicals have been flocking to Trump.

The reasons are various. One of these is: Trump is an extremely strong leader who delivers on external policies. For example he was able to stack the US Supreme Court with conservative justices, making three appointments in a short-span of four years. This gives evangelicals more comfort in the future direction of social policies, e.g. abortion. Another is: Trump brings evangelicals into the White House, giving them access to power and a voice in how policies are made. For these, even women Christian voted for Trump despite his misbehaviours towards women.

If you think someone professing to be a Christian is one who believes in (a) loving God, and (b) loving your neighbour as thyself, the US elections have taught us something else. And it is that Christians need not look for the above qualities in their leaders. More important is the ability of their leaders to deliver favourable policies, power and voice.

Hence this is my first of 4 lessons from US elections for my child: people can have very different beliefs. Even people claiming to share the same religion can believe very different things.

Lesson 2: Leaders look after themselves first

This is most obvious in the behaviours of Republican leaders during the past two elections. The Atlantic ran a cheat sheet in 2016 on where party elders stand with regards to Trump as president. It was a mixed bag – there were many Nays or Abstained.

Then, Trump made moves to consolidate his support over the next four years. He implemented a perfectly traditional tax cut bill, and expanded the Replican’s popular base to include multiethnic, working-class Americans.

In 2020, few in the party are prepared to ask Trump to concede. One of the concerns is:

… facing elections whose outcomes are likely to determine control of the Senate, Republicans are reluctant to do anything to dampen the enthusiasm of their conservative base. Any hint that leaders were prodding Mr. Trump to exit the stage could provoke a Twitter rampage from the president that could turn his supporters against the party at a critical time.

On the Democrats camp, the silence on the Hunter Biden scandal was deafening. The danger of a US President who might be subject to blackmail by a hostile foreign government is totally overlooked.

The message from both parties is simple – “Win at all cost!” That the world’s foremost and most powerful democratic country exhibits this kind of leadership is disconcerting. I think it is important that leaders should serve the people. Nevertheless, it is important my child makes a clear-headed distinction between wish and reality. Hence the second of 4 lessons from US elections my child should learn is to have a realistic view of the kind of leaders we have in the world right now, and likely henceforth. They are not just found in the US, and definitely not confined only to the political realm.

Lesson 3: Style matters

In the current environment, the ability of a politician to reach out directly to her audience is a distinct advantage. This allows Trump to hold his own against traditional media he labelled as “fake news”. His experience in reality television also provides useful training in facing the camera and pandering to an excitement-craving audience.

In fact, this website list 9 professional lessons we can learn from Trump, including:

1. Never let them forget your name;
2. You’re not here to make friends; and
3. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.

This reminds me of a corporate event I attended recently, where business executives take turns to share their success stories in well-edited video clips. This was a company in an industry as boring as you can think of. And yet, to keep up with the times, the investors, the customers and young recruits, the executives literally became YouTubers. And they had flashy messages to deliver too. One urged staff to bleed blood of the company colour, another demanded passion at work. Ironically, one exclaimed that it is “criminal” not to place customers first, and yet overlooked the fact that another executive had freely admitted to having bribed immigration officials to alter his son’s passport.

I would not go to the extend of imbuing in my child the need to become a criminal. The importance of being able to face a camera and reach out to one’s own audience, however, is becoming a core skill.

Lesson 4: Might is right

This is the most important of the 4 lessons from US elections my child ought to learn. The US elections has given an opportunity to learn how Americans view US foreign policy.

The US has been a benevolent global hegemon to the world since the second world war. It has invested generously in the reconstruction of Europe, and in developing international institutions to pursue objectives favourable to the US. Often times, such objectives, such as trade and political stability, are also aligned to those of smaller nations.

The costs of such global influence do not come cheap, however. In 2003, the historian Niall Ferguson wrote about this after the Bush-administration war against terror. He quoted then IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff referencing US current budget deficit of 5% or more would be concerning for an emerging market. As of 2020Q2, the US current deficit stood at 3.5%, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter.

During his reign, Trump took steps to unburden the US from such costs. This is done by reducing international commitments or exiting totally. Where its burden is reduced, the costs are passed on to US allies, e.g. European countries, Japan and Korea. In these matters, the negotiation is quite straight forward – US is mightier than thou, so thou shalt do as commanded. And so it is done.

It is no surprise other hegemon wannabes in the world behaves like this. That is the reason why they will remain “wannabes”. For the US to adopt the same mode of behaviour is troubling, however. Nevertheless, my child will need to learn that the option to behave well or badly is always with the mighty. The meek has to adapt, and remember that not all hegemons will remain benevolent.

Conclusion

There are many things we can learn from the recent US presidential race. The 4 lessons from US elections for my child are:

1. People can have very different beliefs from you, even those ostensibly sharing the same religion;
2. Leaders, just like ordinary people, serve themselves first;
3. Style matters: do not automatically assume substance will always have the upper hand;
4. Might is right – if you’re not in the camp of the might, you need to adapt.